If you have a stake in the world of radio advertising, you’ve likely heard about the sweeping change affecting Nielsen’s rating methodology next year.
This month, the leaders in audience insights will make a significant shift from their standard five minutes of listening time to a three-minute qualifier across 48 PPM markets.
The change comes more than two decades after top markets switched from Diary to PPM measurement and aims to recapture lost impressions while improving the overall measurability of radio advertising. Many in the industry view the coming change as a long-awaited course-correct.
How will this 120-second shift affect the measurability of radio advertising, and what does it mean for clients? Here’s what you need to know about the change and how agencies like SMI are preparing for a new era of listening data.
WHY NOW?
Prompted by the evolving media consumption habits of Americans, Nielsen’s updated methodology stands to drive market-level radio audience growth while boosting the ratings of local stations.
Consumers are listening in shorter durations. Most songs are no longer than three minutes long, and 45% of all PPM listening occasions are shorter than five minutes. By modifying the minimum qualifier from five minutes to three minutes, previously uncredited listeners will be counted.
“Attention spans are changing,” says Senior Media Buyer Pam Wolfgram, “and if an ad doesn’t immediately capture someone’s attention, it won’t get much traction.”
Nielsen has measured impressions using 15-minute intervals known as “quarter-hours” since the 1920s and will continue using this metric as their principal criteria.
In some cases, a five-minute listening session may be reduced to just three minutes of credited time if it spans the transition between two quarter-hours, as Nielsen only tracks impressions down to the nearest whole minute.
A move to the three-minute listening threshold is expected to create a one-time increase to radio listening levels for all stations across all PPM markets.
“It’s a really exciting change,” adds Pam, “especially from a media perspective. I think clients will see a rise in awareness of their younger following. It won’t be as much about gaining new listeners as it will be recognizing listeners who weren’t accounted for in the past.”
Cumulus predicts its younger demographics will net the biggest boost with a projected 27% increase in 18-49 and 25-54 audiences.
By 2025, AM/FM radio’s ratings within the 18-49 demographic are expected to outpace television in key advertising groups further.
WHAT TO EXPECT
Nielsen’s initial impact data estimates an initial 24% average audience (AQH) increase across all PPM markets.
“Will time spent listening increase?” asks Media Assistant Emily Holtzclaw, “Initially, yes – on paper. If programming across the board improves from this change, we can expect a higher level of legitimate engagement from listeners.”
Along with providing a more comprehensive makeup of listeners, advertisers will have the opportunity for better-targeted campaigns.
“Most station breaks are five minutes,” adds Emily, “designed to capture listenership. Reducing ad breaks means less noise, allowing clients to be nimble with their campaigns.”
Nielsen’s hope – amongst many – is to show advertisers that they’re getting a larger audience than they thought they were before. In a recent webinar, Nielsen’s managing director, Rich Tunkel, predicted markets like Salt Lake City and San Antonio – young commuter cities – may benefit the most from the change.
Since Diary Stations will remain untouched, Nielsen projects an overall ratings lift of around 10% nationwide. These changes, however, will take some time to see on a macro level.
“Keep in mind – these aren’t necessarily new listeners coming into the mix,” adds Pam, “These are listeners who’ve always been there.”
Pam anticipates this reporting change will open up a universe of lower CPM media, offering up formerly out-of-reach station time to agencies and clients alike.
At the same time, agencies should be prepared to brief clients on this trend break, focusing on the potential of the markets, stations, and formats seeing the biggest lift.
WHEN DOES THIS HAPPEN?
The shift covers the January 2025 PPM survey period, which begins on January 9, with releases starting the following month.
For more information on Nielsen’s landmark ratings methodology change, read the 3-Minute Qualifier Hub here.